The score
of his predictions came true
within five years of him saying them
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- Came true eventually
- —
- Typical wait for one to land
- —
- Impossible to check
- —
however many decades it took
median time from prediction to event
secret plans, no observable outcome
How long has the clock been running?
Time from him saying it to the event — or, for the ones that have not arrived, to today. A call that needs twenty years to land was not a prediction; it was a guess that outlived its own deadline. Pick a timeframe to read those ones.
came true still waiting
The predictions
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How this is scored
Four outcomes, and nothing is thrown away. Every prediction is a hit, a miss, still waiting, or impossible to check. There is no "inconclusive" bucket to quietly hide the awkward ones in.
The headline asks one narrow question. Had it happened within five years of him saying it? Every prediction counts once it has had those five years, and none before — including the ones already decided. Scoring a recent call the moment it resolves would quietly leave out everything still pending, and the claims that stay pending are the vague open-ended ones. Anybody can hit 50% by making a hundred predictions that might come true some day and two that won’t take long. So the recent ones wait their turn, right and wrong alike.
Still waiting counts as not yet right. Twenty-five years of nothing is an answer. It stays visible as its own outcome rather than being scored as a miss by stealth.
Impossible to check is the interesting category. It holds the two shapes that can never be scored against him: "they are secretly planning it", which no evidence could ever refute, and "there will be another attack", which ordinary events confirm within weeks whatever happens. Neither tells you anything about whether he is right. Counting how much of his output works that way is most of the explanation for a 99% success rate.
"Globalists", "they", "the elites". He rarely names who he means, and who he means shifts over the years. We score what he said would happen, never who he says is behind it. Nobody can check an unnamed actor, and guessing at one would mean scoring him on a claim he did not make — so his own words stay on the card, unresolved. It is also a large part of why so many of these cannot be checked at all.
Every source is fetched and checked. A quoted passage has to actually appear on the page it is credited to, or the citation is thrown out before you ever see it.
Disagreements are shown, not hidden. Every hit, and a sample of everything else, gets a second model's independent read. Where they disagree the card says so.